Get ready for the fearless forecasts to start flying.
“Every day, investors have to snowshoe their way through a blizzard of propaganda, misinformation, and incomplete and incorrect data. If you respond reflexively to that noise, you’ll do nothing but trade until you go broke.” – Jason Zweig
“Not a Bear Amongst Them”
Barron’s Roundtable – January 1973
Forty-seven years ago, in January 1973, Barron’s conducted its annual roundtable survey of investment professionals, asking for their market views on the upcoming year. The cover story title that issue was “Not A Bear Amongst Them,” reflecting the panelists universal bullishness regarding stocks.
What those panelists didn’t know was that the markets were literally on the precipice of a two-year annihilation.
Rising inflation, the 1973 Arab-Israeli war, the OPEC oil embargo, Watergate, and the resignation of a sitting president all created a toxic brew of anger and deep unrest which tore at the country and decimated the financial markets. Didn’t see that one coming…
“There’s Almost No Chance of a Recession This Year, Experts Say”
Barron’s Roundtable – January 2020
This past January, Barron’s once again gathered Wall Street’s best minds for their annual forecasts. Among other opinions offered was abject optimism regarding the economy. Global viral pandemic? Didn’t see that one coming…
And We Keep Coming Back for More.
We love for “experts” to tell us what is going to happen, even when the imposition of life renders their forecasts useless. Like watching a punch-drunk boxer stumble, at some point you might want to ask these experts two questions – why do they keep stepping into the ring, and why would we ever take seriously anything that they might have to say?
You see, the truth about forecasting the future is this – no one knows anything.
While paying attention to market predictions can be entertaining, it can also be destructive and expensive as it often leads to short-term distractions along with the dreaded “bad investment behavior” which afflicts and destroys the plans and dreams of so many.
As we have counseled many times, please ignore any and all market predictions offered by “helpers” and gurus. Turn off the financial “news” websites and cable channels, and don’t spend too much time trying to handicap the upcoming presidential election. History says the markets are politically agnostic anyway, as evidenced by the record below.
Do this instead – maintain a well-balanced allocation designed to negotiate life’s twists and turns without having to guess what the next day, week or month might bring. Your heirs and future estate will thank you.